In November 2020, I read the book Apollo’s Arrow after hearing Dr Christakis on NPR’s Fresh Air. Somewhere midway through this book, this paragraph stood out to me:

“Either way, until 2022, Americans will live in an acutely changed world—they will be wearing masks, for example, and avoiding crowded places. I’ll call this the immediate pandemic period. For a few years after we either reach herd immunity or have a widely distributed vaccine, people will still be recovering from the overall clinical, psychological, social, and economic shock of the pandemic and the adjustments it required, perhaps through 2024. I’ll call this the intermediate pandemic period. Then, gradually, things will return to “normal”—albeit in a world with some persistent changes. Around 2024, the post-pandemic period will likely begin.“

Given we were only 7 months into the pandemic I was intrigued at the timeline specificity of the pandemic. At that time, there was uncertainty in the media landscape on where this was going. Public health agencies also didn’t make any bold predictions about this.

Fast forward about 3 years to the current day, and this prediction has seemed to be accurate, maybe off by a factor of 6-12 months.

Hindsight of course is always 20/20, but would it be beneficial if we could identify experts who made accurate predictions? Or will uncertainty always rule the day?